A flexible Tool for Model Building: the Relevant Transformation of the Inputs Network Approach (RETINA)

A new method, called relevant transformation of the inputs network approach (RETINA) is proposed as a tool for model building and selection. It is designed to improve some of the shortcomings of neural networks. It has the flexibility of neural network models, the concavity of the likelihood in the weights of the usual likelihood models, and the ability to identify a parsimonious set of attributes that are likely to be relevant for predicting out of sample outcomes. RETINA expands the range of models by considering transformations of the original inputs; splits the sample in three disjoint subsamples, sorts the candidate regressors by a saliency feature, chooses the models in subsample 1, uses subsample 2 for parameter estimation and subsample 3 for cross-validation. It is modular, can be used as a data exploratory tool and is computationally feasible in personal computers. In tests on simulated data, it achieves high rates of successes when the sample size or the R2 are large enough. As our experiments show, it is superior to alternative procedures such as the non negative garrote and forward and backward stepwise regression.

Conditional Independence Specification Testing for Dependent Processes with Local Polynomial Quantile Regression

Singapore Management University Office of Researc

Plus Factors and Agreement in Antitrust Law

Plus factors are economic actions and outcomes, above and beyond parallel conduct by oligopolistic firms, that are largely inconsistent with unilateral conduct but largely consistent with explicitly coordinated action. Possible plus factors are typically enumerated without any attempt to distinguish them in terms of a meaningful economic categorization or in terms of their probative strength for inferring collusion. In this Article, we provide a taxonomy for plus factors as well as a methodology for ranking plus factors in terms of their strength for inferring explicit collusion, the strongest of which are referred to as super plus factors

Plus Factors and Agreement in Antitrust Law

Plus factors are economic actions and outcomes, above and beyond parallel conduct by oligopolistic firms, that are largely inconsistent with unilateral conduct but largely consistent with explicitly coordinated action. Possible plus factors are typically enumerated without any attempt to distinguish them in terms of a meaningful economic categorization or in terms of their probative strength for inferring collusion. In this Article, we provide a taxonomy for plus factors as well as a methodology for ranking plus factors in terms of their strength for inferring explicit collusion, the strongest of which are referred to as super plus factors

Uptake of synthetic low density lipoprotein by leukemic stem cells — a potential stem cell targeted drug delivery strategy

Chronic Myeloid Leukemia (CML) stem/progenitor cells, which over-express Bcr-Abl, respond to imatinib by a reversible block in proliferation without significant apoptosis. As a result, patients are unlikely to be cured owing to the persistence of leukemic quiescent stem cells (QSC) capable of initiating relapse. Previously, we have reported that intracellular levels of imatinib in primary primitive CML cells (CD34<sup>+</sup>38<sup>lo/−</sup>), are significantly lower than in CML progenitor cells (total CD34<sup>+</sup>) and leukemic cell lines. The aim of this study was to determine if potentially sub-therapeutic intracellular drug concentrations in persistent leukemic QSC may be overcome by targeted drug delivery using synthetic Low Density Lipoprotein (sLDL) particles. As a first step towards this goal, however, the extent of uptake of sLDL by leukemic cell lines and CML patient stem/progenitor cells was investigated. Results with non-drug loaded particles have shown an increased and preferential uptake of sLDL by Bcr-Abl positive cell lines in comparison to Bcr-Abl negative. Furthermore, CML CD34<sup>+</sup> and primitive CD34<sup>+</sup>38<sup>lo/−</sup> cells accumulated significantly higher levels of sLDL when compared with non-CML CD34<sup>+</sup> cells. Thus, drug-loading the sLDL nanoparticles could potentially enhance intracellular drug concentrations in primitive CML cells and thus aid their eradication

An Experimental Study of Cryptocurrency Market Dynamics

As cryptocurrencies gain popularity and credibility, marketplaces for cryptocurrencies are growing in importance. Understanding the dynamics of these markets can help to assess how viable the cryptocurrnency ecosystem is and how design choices affect market behavior. One existential threat to cryptocurrencies is dramatic fluctuations in traders' willingness to buy or sell. Using a novel experimental methodology, we conducted an online experiment to study how susceptible traders in these markets are to peer influence from trading behavior. We created bots that executed over one hundred thousand trades costing less than a penny each in 217 cryptocurrencies over the course of six months. We find that individual "buy" actions led to short-term increases in subsequent buy-side activity hundreds of times the size of our interventions. From a design perspective, we note that the design choices of the exchange we study may have promoted this and other peer influence effects, which highlights the potential social and economic impact of HCI in the design of digital institutions.Comment: CHI 201

Trans Fat Consumption and Aggression

Background: Dietary trans fatty acids (dTFA) are primarily synthetic compounds that have been introduced only recently; little is known about their behavioral effects. dTFA inhibit production of omega-3 fatty acids, which experimentally have been shown to reduce aggression. Potential behavioral effects of dTFA merit investigation. We sought to determine whether dTFA are associated with aggression/irritability. Methodolgy/Prinicpal Findings: We capitalized on baseline dietary and behavioral assessments in an existing clinical trial to analyze the relationship of dTFA to aggression. Of 1,018 broadly sampled baseline subjects, the 945 adult men and women who brought a completed dietary survey to their baseline visit are the target of this analysis. Subjects (seen 1999– 2004) were not on lipid medications, and were without LDL-cholesterol extremes, diabetes, HIV, cancer or heart disease. Outcomes assessed adverse behaviors with impact on others: Overt Aggression Scale Modified-aggression subscale (primary behavioral endpoint); Life History of Aggression; Conflict Tactics Scale; and self-rated impatience and irritability. The association of dTFA to aggression was analyzed via regression and ordinal logit, unadjusted and adjusted for potential confounders (sex, age, education, alcohol, and smoking). Additional analyses stratified on sex, age, and ethnicity, and examined the prospective association. Greater dTFA were strongly significantly associated with greater aggression, with dTFA more consistently predictive than other assessed aggression predictors. The relationship was upheld wit

Predicting Bison Migration out of Yellowstone National Park Using Bayesian Models

Long distance migrations by ungulate species often surpass the boundaries of preservation areas where conflicts with various publics lead to management actions that can threaten populations. We chose the partially migratory bison (Bison bison) population in Yellowstone National Park as an example of integrating science into management policies to better conserve migratory ungulates. Approximately 60% of these bison have been exposed to bovine brucellosis and thousands of migrants exiting the park boundary have been culled during the past two decades to reduce the risk of disease transmission to cattle. Data were assimilated using models representing competing hypotheses of bison migration during 1990–2009 in a hierarchal Bayesian framework. Migration differed at the scale of herds, but a single unifying logistic model was useful for predicting migrations by both herds. Migration beyond the northern park boundary was affected by herd size, accumulated snow water equivalent, and aboveground dried biomass. Migration beyond the western park boundary was less influenced by these predictors and process model performance suggested an important control on recent migrations was excluded. Simulations of migrations over the next decade suggest that allowing increased numbers of bison beyond park boundaries during severe climate conditions may be the only means of avoiding episodic, large-scale reductions to the Yellowstone bison population in the foreseeable future. This research is an example of how long distance migration dynamics can be incorporated into improved management policies

Successful Expansion but Not Complete Restriction of Tropism of Adeno-Associated Virus by In Vivo Biopanning of Random Virus Display Peptide Libraries

Targeting viral vectors to certain tissues in vivo has been a major challenge in gene therapy. Cell type-directed vector capsids can be selected from random peptide libraries displayed on viral capsids in vitro but so far this system could not easily be translated to in vivo applications. Using a novel, PCR-based amplification protocol for peptide libraries displayed on adeno-associated virus (AAV), we selected vectors for optimized transduction of primary tumor cells in vitro. However, these vectors were not suitable for transduction of the same target cells under in vivo conditions. We therefore performed selections of AAV peptide libraries in vivo in living animals after intravenous administration using tumor and lung tissue as prototype targets. Analysis of peptide sequences of AAV clones after several rounds of selection yielded distinct sequence motifs for both tissues. The selected clones indeed conferred gene expression in the target tissue while gene expression was undetectable in animals injected with control vectors. However, all of the vectors selected for tumor transduction also transduced heart tissue and the vectors selected for lung transduction also transduced a number of other tissues, particularly and invariably the heart. This suggests that modification of the heparin binding motif by target-binding peptide insertion is necessary but not sufficient to achieve tissue-specific transgene expression. While the approach presented here does not yield vectors whose expression is confined to one target tissue, it is a useful tool for in vivo tissue transduction when expression in tissues other than the primary target is uncritical